The success of Apple will be determined based on its continue success on innovation. In fact that’s the problem with Tech company. They have to fight and win every tech/product cycle.

I’d hold and buy on dip.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aapl-is-now-shortable-2012-04-24?dist=beforebell

“Our outlook for the global economy in 2012 and 2013 is slower growth than the last couple of years—about 3% global GDP growth in 2012—with quite a bit of differentiation between the strongest performers and the weakest performers.”

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/global-economic-outlook/outlook-2012/index.html?cid=PS_01_20_06_99_01_05

1) Buyer: Limited -> High

2)Supplier:Low

3)Rivalry: Concentrated and Limited

4) Barrier: High

5) Substitution: Limited

6) Complements: High

Genotyping and related technology will be a disruptive technology in the medical arena. However, it may not be a profitable industry,  i.e. airline industry, without better understanding the profit models.

Ideally we’d like to invest in Great company at fair price. Unfortunately, NVEC is currently priced high and offers little margin of safety.

Looking at the balance sheet: The market CAP is at $258M. Out of the book value of $75M, on the surface it’s look like a fair value of book price multiple of less than 4x. However, $55m of the book value is in short-term bonds. Stripping that out of the MC and BV, you are really paying $200M for a book of $20M, which seem pretty steep.

On the revenue side, you paying about 8x on the $30M top line.

To sum up I consider a NVEC a great growth company but at a premium cost.

Q2FY11 Conference Call

http://investor.shareholder.com/media/eventdetail.cfm?eventid=103814&CompanyID=NVE&e=1&mediaKey=2484AB0DE456074A91CA46B5DA2E2244

http://solazyme.com/

WFC – not by choice, mostly profits from early 2009, purchased around $10. Have reduced significantly but still number two in position.

CEO – Like WFC large position from 2009. CEO still have strong competitive advantage as a Quasi-State owned oil E&P company with exclusive drill rights in China seas and other offshore areas. Hard to beat that moat. Do you think China will stop consuming Oil any time soon?

BAC – Same boat as CEO. However, I believe its much more undervalued. WFC shouldn’t worth twice as much as BAC.

BRK.B – safest bet at around cost basis of $70. Buffett already outright guaranteed the bottomline of stock at 110% of book value.

UPS – Logistic improve with recovery. I don’t when the recovery will occur, but it will come, soon or later.

Other holding: NASDAQ:ILMN  NYSE:WU  NYSE:UNP  NYSE:NSC  NYSE:MT  NYSE:EDU  NASDAQ:BIDU  NYSE:GS  NYSE:CAT  NASDAQ:GOOG  NASDAQ:AMZN  NASDAQ:PRGO  NYSE:V  NYSE:ED  NASDAQ:NVEC

Malcolm Gladwell has becoming one of my favorite writers. His writing reaches a wide range of topics with emphasize in a mix of sociology and psychology. What shines his works apart are his uses of real-life examples and commonly known events to illustrate the underline subject principles, like the numerous examples in Blink or this book.

In comparison, Blink dwelled the entire content on one single subject, Thin-Slicing, the ability to make instinctive decisions within a small fraction of time to achieve astounding results as if were studied over ample amount of time and resources. What the Dog Saw covered over a number of topics. In no particular order, here are some brain notes:

Creeping Determinism: How after an event occurs can alter (increase) the emotions or confidence level of what you thought about and prior to the events.

Information Noise: The ability to differentiate noise from useful information. The problem with more information does not warrant right choices.

Implicit Vs explicit Learning: unconscious and conscious learning.

Stress from Pressure, Panic Vs Choke: If learned through conscious, innate ability may takes over under panic; if learned drawn from unconscious, inability to explain or to act if try to concentrate from conscious under choke.

Risk Tolerance: willingness to tolerate risks and ability to shred our comfort zones

Growth achieve through continue process of acquire new comfort and relinquish it

Normal Accident: Series of good things where evaluating individually maybe a good thing, but taking collectively causes catastrophe. This is the reason to have a long-term goal, so we can assess alignment of individual decisions.

Smart people are overrated: The failure for Enron which was driven by the talent people orthodox culture maybe caused by lack of common sense and social goals.

Success of an individual may lay with his or her own smartness, but the success of an organization relies on its ability to grow its people to smartness.

Structure Interviews that ask for specific questions or questions based on specific scenarios is the only type of interview that can predict an employee future outcome.

What to do when faced with two equally important deadlines, if answer is to tackle the one with what you know the best, it fails to put the company’s need first.

If everyone is to think outside of the box, maybe then it’s the box that needs to change.

Marketing: Make a good product, show people how to use it, like Ron Popeil’s rotisserie oven and infomercial, vs. how cassette video player failed to replace sitcoms.

Ketchup and Mustards: Best Ketchup may not dominate market, not what the customer want, or customer may not know what they want, or even change the culture of usage.

Package is part of the product.

Success for a reason: Buffett, common sense, Soros, back pain (unconscious?).

Quants vs. Common Sense on Stocks: Bell curve, bell curve with end lobes, Black Swan.

In a way, option sellers believe bell curve, belief shown in premium. Buyers are believers of ear lobes version of bell curves.

Risk averse on gains, gamble on losses. People participate in market’s wiliness to loss everything to gain daily small winnings and for the pleasing effect of feedbacks.

Church and Contraceptive pills: Fact, belief vs. pursuit for agreement may be different things. Contraceptive pills: Pope deemed it un-nature to control god’s will, where could argue for protect life or health, which Pope later deemed acceptable. The art of selling

Brest cancer due to amount of estrogen and progesterone a women live through. Birth of child prevents breasts from mutation. More menstrual cycles yield more estrogen. More estrogen and progesterone contribute to higher risk of breast cancer.

Culture or Rule based Conformity

Experimental pursuer for Perfection

Marketing and LOreal Hair Color, I am worth it. Single slogan responsible for market soaring.

Criminal Profile: white victims may point to white perpetrator as old victim may point to perpetrator with pre-mature sex drives

Biting Dog Profile – Pit Bull are not necessary more dangerous than others as in common belief.

Of course, What the Dogs Saw also covered Thin Slicing.

]]> http://www.oneonian.com/wordpress/2010/06/14/book-review-what-the-dog-saw/feed/ 0 http://www.oneonian.com/wordpress/2010/04/03/2010-q1-report-is-now-available/ http://www.oneonian.com/wordpress/2010/04/03/2010-q1-report-is-now-available/#comments Sat, 03 Apr 2010 22:22:28 +0000 Yuan He http://www.oneonian.com/wordpress/?p=131 http://www.oneonian.com/invest.php

Link: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P/E_ratio

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SP500pe.svg

Amit Shah wrote a good article on big financials on seeking alpha.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/174773-wells-fargo-jpmorgan-and-bank-of-america-stock-prices-can-double#comments_header