Wed 15 Aug 2007
What to buy?
Posted by oneonian under Money Talk
Market keep going down, so what to buy? after you read the link regarding the ADR, let me offer you this advice.
If Investment Bank brought a Chinese company XYZ 10,000 shares at $$50 RMB at current exchange rate of 7.6x, it will list say at ratio of 10:1 shares, that’s 10x$$50/7.6=$65.79 dollars per 1 ADR of 10 XYZ chinese stocks. Ignore all underlying market and company movements, single out the exchange factor, the exchange between RMB and Dollar will continue to decrease, say 1 year from now, RMB will trade at 7x. (it’s less than 5x in float right now) that same 1 ADR of 10 XYZ will worth 10*$$50/7=$71.43, a gain of 8.57%, so take advantage of this pegged exchange ratio.
of course, what i failed to mention is the inflation. inflation reduces purchase power. I haven’t fully research on chinese inflation and us inflation numbers. but I am thinking, the exchange rates outweight the inflation by far.
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August 21st, 2007 at 9:20 am
my comments are working ^^