Man, somebody must be watching my blog closely. Last time, I mentioned CREE, a week later, it jumps 15%+. Last week, I mentioned about China own investment Fund, this week, it is formed. here is link http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/china_investment_fund.html?.v=2
the money question is where they going to invest. I think as a new arena for the chinese government, they will likely invest a majority in Treasures and bonds, and graduately increase their equity investments. In truth, I think China will invest a big portion in itself, where else would they find a higher return, and on top of that, it will help and stimulate its own economics. So over and over again, I have named many on top of many reasons to invest in China. Well, here is one more.
Of course, right now is the prefect timing too. if you invest now, hold it for a year, so by this time of next year, in midst of the Olympic, you can start to divest and cash in your profit, and brace yourself for the bubble. But that remain to be seen. Anyway, now is the right time, if you haven’t already, if you want to take advantage of the Long-term capital tax benefit and still give yourself enough time to jump off the train, before it would collide. I would suppose this will happen after the Olympic event if it would occur.
There is a saying goes “the difference between good poker player and great poker player is math apathy.” For us to be great investors and simply become more efficient, we need to develope the skills for memorization, math intuition, speed reading, and social interaction. This website provide a good resource.
My previous recommendation of PWI is up a whopping 32% today. Abu Dhabi buys it for 2.4B. PWI had a sound finanical strenghen, but more importantly, it pays about 1% in dividend every month, which makes it very attractive. I recommended this stock for a more defense investors who looking for some nice dividend yields.
Great morning kickoff for my portfolio today. If you look at http://finance.google.comtoday’s top 3 moves are YZC, PTR, CEO and ACH is not far behind (from 12% to 6%). Should be a strong boost today, if not, at least will be a giant spread between my portfolio and S&P500. If I recall correctly, other than the re-bounce day back in August, this should be my biggest one-day-gain, well hopefully, currently at 6.35%. This gives an yield of 53% year-to-date and also breaks the $50K barrier, no longer I have to exercise 30 trades per quarter to enjoy the $9.99 trade commission, which is great, since I just began the transition to dramatically reduce my number of trades and practically eliminate turn-overs.
Books to Get Rich By
Rich Karlgaard 10.08.07
Theory of Capitalism
The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World–by Alan Greenspan; The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable–by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; Wealth and Poverty–by George Gilder; Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction–by Thomas K. McCraw; On the Wealth of Nations–by P. J. O’Rourke; The Road to Serfdom— by Friedrich Hayek; Flat Tax Revolution: Using a Postcard to Abolish the IRS–by Steve Forbes; The Way the World Works–by Jude Wanniski; The Twilight of Sovereignty–by Walter Wriston.
History and Heroes
Losing My Virginity: How I’ve Survived, Had Fun, and Made a Fortune Doing Business My Way–by Richard Branson; Bowerman and the Men of Oregon: The Story of Oregon’s Legendary Coach and Nike (nyse: NKE – news – people )’s Cofounder–by Kenny Moore; Bill & Dave: How Hewlett and Packard Built the World’s Greatest Company–by Michael S. Malone; Gates: How Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT – news – people )’s Mogul Reinvented an Industry and Made Himself the Richest Man in America–by Stephen Manes and Paul Andrews; Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist–by Roger Lowenstein; Walt Disney (nyse: DIS – news – people ): The Triumph of the American Imagination–by Neal Gabler; The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin–by Benjamin Franklin; The House of Morgan: An American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance–by Ron Chernow; The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression–by Amity Shlaes.
How Capitalism Works Today
Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes–by Mark Penn and E. Kinney Zalesne; The New Normal: Great Opportunities in a Time of Great Risk–by Roger McNamee; The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail–by Clayton Christensen; The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us–by Robyn Meredith; Basic Economics: A Common Sense Guide to the Economy–by Thomas Sowell.
Bull’s Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market–by John Mauldin; Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in Only 15 Minutes a Week!–by Phil Town; Boomtown USA: The 7 1 / 2 Keys to Big Success in Small Towns–by John M. Schultz; The Intelligent Investor–by Benjamin Graham; The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don’t–by Kenneth L. Fisher; The Elements of Style–by William Strunk Jr. and E. B. White; Positioning: The Battle for Your Mind–by Al Ries and Jack Trout; Guerrilla Marketing: Secrets for Making Big Profits From Your Small Business–by Jay Conrad Levinson; Rich Dad, Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!–by Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon L. Lechter; How We Got Here: A Slightly Irreverent History of Technology and Markets–by Andy Kessler; The Art of the Start: The Time-Tested, Battle-Hardened Guide for Anyone Starting Anything–by Guy Kawasaki; Accounting Workbook for Dummies–by John A. Tracy.
In Search of Excellence: Lessons From America’s Best-Run Companies–by Thomas J. Peters and Robert H. Waterman; It’s Your Ship: Management Techniques From the Best Damn Ship in the Navy–by Captain D. Michael Abrashoff; Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap … and Others Don’t–by Jim Collins.
Food for the Soul
They Call Me Coach–by John Wooden with Jack Tobin; Think and Grow Rich–by Napoleon Hill; The Fountainhead–by Ayn Rand; The Acts of the Apostles–by Luke; The Purpose-Driven Church–by Rick Warren; Move Ahead With Possibility Thinking–by Robert Schuller; The Greatest Salesman in the World–by Og Mandino; The Richest Man in Babylon–by George Clason; The Soul of a New Machine–by Tracy Kidder.
Options: The Secret Life of Steve Jobs, a Parody–by Fake Steve Jobs; The Hypomanic Edge: The Link Between a Little Craziness and a Lot of Success in America–by John D. Gartner; Investment Biker–by Jim Rogers; All the Money in the World: How The Forbes 400 Make–and Spend–Their Fortunes–by Peter Bernstein and Annalyn Swan; Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game—
Let me bring about another idea that will light up your future. Other than getting out of Sub-prime problem, pushing stock higher, you know what one other big indirect effect of Fed cut? That’s right, China again. China is holding Trillions of US dollars in reserve, you already see China dumping some money to Blackstone to test the water in equity investments. With the rate cut, China will likely to dump even a much higher percentage, compare to the billion to Blackstone, into investments seeking higher return for their reserve or hedge againist the inflating dollars. Regardless where they going to invest, you can be sure they going to drive up the demand. Give you an idea of impact, I faintly remember the stock market has a about or more than 25 trillions dollars, if China dump 1 trillion, we going to see some giant waves. Remember, Olympic in just 11 month, Chinese revenue is going to go up, meaning even more money for China to spend, so beat the wave, especially, with US market just coming off a dip, dump all your money before and where China do.
“If you can be persuaded, then you are ignorant; else you are arrogant or confident.”
– Yuan He
You read about it, you heard about it, and you know about it, but you constantly fail at it. That’s right, the itsy bitsy thing called patience, I think it costed me, a rough calculation of Two Thousand Dollars this month at least.
Since I derived the new ranking, I was eager to conform to it. I was excited. The “rush” made my previous statement of holding everything until at least Fed Day, yesterday, 9/18, “poofed”. Technically, I made myself the rule of, if stocks goes up upon positive news, an exit point is the second day after the news, not the same day. Anyway, going back to patience, I think its a bargain at $2000 dollars, if the lesson sticks with me hereafter. Again, we need to set aside our emotions, believe in our sound judgements, and prosper. I offer this important lesson to you at a 100% discount. Feel free to donate the profit by sending me books in my wish list. http://www.amazon.com/gp/registry/wishlist/2BT5SSE31P0UB/ref=wl_web/
With the big rate cut today, most stocks surged, and I thought it was a good time to take some of my FCX off the table in preparation for my portfolio balance in accordance with ranking I derived earlier. Now I just need to find an entry point to buy 1 lot of YZC, GRMN, CHL, and CREE. I believe, today’s rally, is beginning of a strong bull run, which will ultimately end with an inflation adjustment. In the meantime, it might be difficult to find a good pull-back to enter the market with my remaining buy positions.
Grrr. I just decided to look into CREE this past week, was planing on going back to bloomington and put all the data into my oneOnian model before I buy it. and guess what! it shot up 11% today. Grrr. for those that brought some upon my recommendations, make sure send some profit my way. Now, i am not sure how long I will have to wait before I can make a purchase for CREE, consider another shoot up in about 4 days, the Fed Rate cut.
Got bored sitting in my training class, so I decided to wondering my imagination aloft the classroom and enter a deep thought about the future of my prospective and current companies. I tabulated the companies and assign a value to it in each of the following areas, weighting the same; Financial, management, product growth, competition, great company, technolgy depletion, PE/Cap, and more importantly, the OneOnian model. Keep in mind I am still swim in a sea of imaginaries, without physical contacts of the physical world “internet” judgements are based on what my memories serves me the best, beside the numbers and CEOs, other fields should be fairly accurate. Of course, I will do a much more detailed analysis at end of this quarter, maybe 50 pages, alot more info than Q1 Q2 reports. So be excited to look forward to that. Without further giberish, the rankings are: ACH, CEO, PTR, CHL, YZC, GRMN, FCX, MT, CREE. You can see this is different than my current portfolio composition, I will have to adjust toward this ranking when the price is right. I would rather to buy in a grander ampitude instead of selling to redistribute the compositions.
Just throwing this out there right now, I believe CREE has a bright future with LED. I believe LED is the future for lightning. I believe they can be as big as GARMIN in GPS. Their technology in LED is far ahead of the pack, the GaN they use for wafer is a great substrate for LED, due to its electrical properties, but GaN lacks the ideal thermal property which hinder its advance in the Wafer growth, nevertheless, the have great heads up for LED which also make it a good buy-out target. anyway more detailed anaylsis coming up.
For Short Term, I think I made the right call on CXTIE, after I bailed out at $2.57, it continued to drop all the way to today price at $1.50. It’s a good thing I didn’t listen to the analysts and did my own assessment on annual report and acted promptly. Now, I just need to work on patience. So far all the stocks I took losses on are the ones I brought based on instincts or analysts, ones that I’ve been following and continuing researched on, like ach, grmn, yzc, beijf, hopefully now chl, have never drop deep in red yet. Wait I take BEIJF back, I brought it based on haunch, there isn’t sufficient report, finanical data available, and its now the only stock in my portfolio that I haven’t applied my secret oneonian assessment. So the viture I need to work on: patience.
With housing continued to be hammered away, I sense CFC is far from bottom up. I still believe the $18 Bank of America deal mark is at a bargain if they don’t go bankrupt. The risk and the long horizon needed to yield a reasonable return may not worth the investment. I think CHL has far growth opportunities with less risk then CFC. Consider large influx of people coming to China for Olympics, the subscriptions of mobile users will increase proportional. At current 70% growth in last year price and comparative 60% growth in net income, first quarter 2008 would be priced around $77 dollars. But with the olympics, I suspect the growth will be at least another 25% taking it just below $100 mark(EMT). CFC on the other hand, is very murky to me at this point, and its hard to understand its future even after this possible recovery. It’s better to invest something that you understand better, so, CHL > CFC, I am bailing out on a loss.
Out on Travel, in DC now, then Orlando, then Atlanta next week.